The Ever-Evolving NBA: How it affects the Sixers?
Will the Sixers take advantage or be disadvantaged?
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is continuously in flux. The current belief, according to analysts, is that offensive production has sky-rocketed due to rule changes: the hand-check, clear path foul, and more. To analyze the degree of increased offense, we decided to compare shooting percentages from the first 26 years of the NBA to the last 26 years. Here’s what we found.
Summary Statistics Table
Analysis
There is undoubtedly a relationship between the year, and the average field goal percentage of the NBA, typically higher field goal percentages occur in later seasons. In the last 26 seasons, the average field goal percentage is 0.453, significantly greater than 0.416 for the first 26 NBA seasons. The cause of this phenomenon is unknown: it could be due to medical advancements, the addition of the three-point line, the increased popularity of small-ball, etc. Additionally, for the first 26 seasons, the field goal rate is more variable than the last 26 seasons. Probably, this is a direct result of athletes becoming stronger, faster, and specifically in the NBA leaner.
How the changing NBA affects the 76ers
The 76ers are going against the grain of the NBA. In a league of small ball, the Sixers have two point guards that are 6’ 6” and above, and their most dominant player is a 7’ 250 lbs behemoth. Not to mention that they have Al Horford, who before 2010, could be a traditional four, but in 2019 standard is a glorified stretch five who is an elite decision-maker and can facilitate when need be.
In a league of offense, it is safe to declare that the 76ers have invested in defense. How will this affect them? Who knows? Let’s foresee the future in an optimistic and pessimistic tone.
Positive:
- Their rugged style will catch opponents by surprise
- Defense is more valuable in the modern NBA: due to the ease of offense
- Defense travels, offense fluctuates
Negatives:
- The Sixers do not have enough offensive talent to shoot at 46% from the field consistently
- If the 76ers’ defense lose focus, for even a 3-minute spurt, the team does not have the shooting to come from behind: they’ll have to generate turnovers
- With NBA scoring becoming easier than ever, the Sixers’ defense will have to create points elsewhere in order to compete with the opposition
Conclusion
Elton Brand has gambled investing in defense, instead of offense. The loss of JJ Redick, replaced by the defensive-minded Josh Richardson, epitomizes Brand’s mindset. Brand’s ideology of defense being more valuable than offense is undoubtedly the correct stance, however. Offense in the NBA has become and will continue to increase in efficiency; therefore, defensive investments are more beneficial than offensive ones. Nevertheless, Brett Brown and the rest of the 76ers’ coaching staff need to produce, not good, not great, but an elite defensive unit. Hopefully, one of the most dominating in the last decade-plus.
Besides Joel Embiid, although he laid a goose egg last night, this team does not have a go-to scorer: turnovers and fast-break opportunities are necessary for wins. Moreover, Elton Brand’s number one priority is to find a three-and-D shooter or a poor man’s version of Lou Williams with better defense. All in all, the Sixers defensive prowess should hide their short-coming offensively, but new faces are more than welcome.
Sources:
Basketball-Reference, Stapplet (for the graphs)
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